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A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has something to gain from the other's arguments."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."